Posts

Showing posts with the label probability

A Second Bite at the Apple

Image
It seems that perhaps I was not clear when I discussed the relative virtues of the PaK36, the PTRD and the Lahti ATR.  Allow me to go back and be more systematic. PaK36 The Panzerabwehrkanone 36 was an anti-tank gun with a 37mm caliber (1 29/64ths inch) and a 1.33m (5' 5" or 45 callibers).  It had a muzzle velocity of 762m/s and could penetrate 34mm of armor sloped at 30 degrees at 100m.  For reference, the side turret of a T34, also sloped at 30 degrees, was 52mm. PTRD/PTRS While there are differences in game terms between these two Soviet anti-tank rifles, there is not a difference in penetration between the two.  It had a caliber of 14.5 and its barrel length was (is, actually, there are some of these still around) just a tad over 1.3m.  It has a muzzle velocity of 1114m/s.    Some sources talk about two different types of ammunition, a steel core and a tungsten core.  The tungsten core penetrated 45mm of armor at 30 degrees, while the steel on...

Very Superstitious...

Image
Dice rolls balance out in the end... How many times have you heard this one you are on the losing end of a snakeyes? It's not true. This is what is known as  The Gambler's Fallacy . We all know that over repeated samples, dice rolls do tend toward the median (7 on 2D6).  This is because the mean is also the mode (or most frequently occurring number.)  The effect is simply more pronounced if we use a coin flip because there is no mode. The distribution of possible outcomes of 2d6 shows why the mean DR tends toward 7.  Not only is 7 the modal outcome, but likelihoods decline the farther one gets from 7.  In all, there is slightly more than a 44% chance of rolling either a 6, 7 or 8 on any given roll. However, just because likelihoods stabilize with more repetitions (assuming fair dice), does not change the fact that the outcome of each DR is  independent.   That is, the same probabilities exist for each roll.  Dice do not keep track of what prior ou...