Assessing Value
I recently started looking at Mark Pitcavage's excellent World of ASL reviews. Mark and I pretty much agree on everything ASL, I think...unfortunately we disagree most vociferously on the role of law enforcement and that's why he (justifiably) thinks I'm a dick.
I have also recently started following ASL sales online and that made me think...perhaps there is a good way to to assess value of ASL stuff that's put up on EBAY and other venues.
The World of ASL is more valuable than most people realize, just because of the way the reviews are structured. Mark goes through the components of the complete sales package. As I said, I've pretty much agreed with Mark's assessment on all the stuff I've read, but it is still an subjective view of a product's value. I also suspect, although I could be wrong, is that not all of the products are from firsthand knowledge. Did Mark actually spring for the ASL Civil War stuff? I hope not.
However, we have other sources to look for more objective view of a product's value.
Before that, however, I would like to digress momentarily to discuss sale of certain game components online. Currently, there are a number of products where someone could simply be copying or printing ASL components on card stock and then putting them on EBAY. Now, I don't think this seller is doing that, but I still have a problem with these kinds of sales. Scenario cards and rulebook pages? That doesn't seem right.
However, let's look at a recent offering of Kharkov: Battle for the Square. According the the seller, these have never been played or the counters punched. There is no note of which edition, which is very important for this pack. There is also no note of what other ASL products might be required to play.
Reviewing the World of ASL critique, I can see how important the lack of an edition number is very important. This module was printed several times (The SS fan boys must really be bonered-up about this.) Once with a historical map, once with map sections, once in a larger version. One time the included counters had serious misprint problem and in one version the module included larger counters!
Mark comes out against Kharkov with a not recommended. He doesn't like the poorly researched historical scenarios and poorly thought through or underdeveloped rules (such as the referenced but not included CG rules. I could probably live with some scenarios with sketchy historical background, but the problem with rules writing exhibited by Critical Hit.
Perhaps most importantly, I can see that the EBAY offer is for $80--which was retail. After you get done paying what seems to me an exorbitant $25 in shipping and (for me at least) a $21 VAT lien, you are paying so much over the retail your ass is going to hurt. What's more, I don't think VAT is required for resales. Just like there is no way it's going to cost $25 to ship this thing, there is nothing to keep somebody from charging you the VAT and then marking it "documents" and pocketing the extra charge. I'm not saying this guy is doing that, I'm just saying it's possible. At any rate, the shipping and (unnecessary) VAT add so much cost to a module that is, in a newer edition, still in print for the same price.
However, let's say I find Mark's review unconvincing. I really want a Kharkov module. I am not such a stickler for historical scenarios, so I can look Kharkov: Battle for the Square up on The ASL Scenario Archive, where there is pretty much all the information about the scenarios--what maps you need, how many squads, how many vehicles. A quick search tells me what I need to know about K:BftS. The module has been out for four years, but it only has one recorded playing. It was rated pretty well.
Even if it has a number of ratings, the ASLSA is not a good indication for prospective buyers. There is significant selection bias in that people who have played the scenarios have bought the package and therefore have a predilection for the historical content. The second reason is that the sample size is very low (1 is almost as low as you can get.)
However, even ROAR only has 8 listings and only one scenario listed twice. ROAR also has the self-selection problem and, in this case, the sample size is also low. A pack of scenarios that gets two plays per year by the entire reporting ASL universe does not bode very well.
We can even search for an after action report. In this case there is a pretty big write-up by Ian Wiley on Wall Advantage. Two things. First, he's pretty enthusiastic about it and liked the scenario. Second, he talks about the "Gosprom" building and its special rules. If Mark hates scenarios of dubious historical provenance, I hate scenarios with buildings that have their own SSR's even more. Tyrant's Lair was so loaded with them it made me vomit in my mouth. They weren't so problematic, however, because between the rubble clearance, U-bahns, S-bahns etc., you couldn't make out how to get between them.
Only 8 reports? Crucible of Steel came out just a year earlier and has HUNDREDS of reported playings. Now, maybe it isn't fair to compare the two, but the differences here are enough that I'm not willing to pay $125 (assuming I get it for the asking price and it doesn't get bid up) for it. I'll just wait for one of my last-place performances at some tournament and pick it up because it's the last thing on the prize table.
When purchasing, do your homework. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
I have also recently started following ASL sales online and that made me think...perhaps there is a good way to to assess value of ASL stuff that's put up on EBAY and other venues.
The World of ASL is more valuable than most people realize, just because of the way the reviews are structured. Mark goes through the components of the complete sales package. As I said, I've pretty much agreed with Mark's assessment on all the stuff I've read, but it is still an subjective view of a product's value. I also suspect, although I could be wrong, is that not all of the products are from firsthand knowledge. Did Mark actually spring for the ASL Civil War stuff? I hope not.
However, we have other sources to look for more objective view of a product's value.
Before that, however, I would like to digress momentarily to discuss sale of certain game components online. Currently, there are a number of products where someone could simply be copying or printing ASL components on card stock and then putting them on EBAY. Now, I don't think this seller is doing that, but I still have a problem with these kinds of sales. Scenario cards and rulebook pages? That doesn't seem right.
However, let's look at a recent offering of Kharkov: Battle for the Square. According the the seller, these have never been played or the counters punched. There is no note of which edition, which is very important for this pack. There is also no note of what other ASL products might be required to play.
Reviewing the World of ASL critique, I can see how important the lack of an edition number is very important. This module was printed several times (The SS fan boys must really be bonered-up about this.) Once with a historical map, once with map sections, once in a larger version. One time the included counters had serious misprint problem and in one version the module included larger counters!
Mark comes out against Kharkov with a not recommended. He doesn't like the poorly researched historical scenarios and poorly thought through or underdeveloped rules (such as the referenced but not included CG rules. I could probably live with some scenarios with sketchy historical background, but the problem with rules writing exhibited by Critical Hit.
Perhaps most importantly, I can see that the EBAY offer is for $80--which was retail. After you get done paying what seems to me an exorbitant $25 in shipping and (for me at least) a $21 VAT lien, you are paying so much over the retail your ass is going to hurt. What's more, I don't think VAT is required for resales. Just like there is no way it's going to cost $25 to ship this thing, there is nothing to keep somebody from charging you the VAT and then marking it "documents" and pocketing the extra charge. I'm not saying this guy is doing that, I'm just saying it's possible. At any rate, the shipping and (unnecessary) VAT add so much cost to a module that is, in a newer edition, still in print for the same price.
However, let's say I find Mark's review unconvincing. I really want a Kharkov module. I am not such a stickler for historical scenarios, so I can look Kharkov: Battle for the Square up on The ASL Scenario Archive, where there is pretty much all the information about the scenarios--what maps you need, how many squads, how many vehicles. A quick search tells me what I need to know about K:BftS. The module has been out for four years, but it only has one recorded playing. It was rated pretty well.
Even if it has a number of ratings, the ASLSA is not a good indication for prospective buyers. There is significant selection bias in that people who have played the scenarios have bought the package and therefore have a predilection for the historical content. The second reason is that the sample size is very low (1 is almost as low as you can get.)
However, even ROAR only has 8 listings and only one scenario listed twice. ROAR also has the self-selection problem and, in this case, the sample size is also low. A pack of scenarios that gets two plays per year by the entire reporting ASL universe does not bode very well.
We can even search for an after action report. In this case there is a pretty big write-up by Ian Wiley on Wall Advantage. Two things. First, he's pretty enthusiastic about it and liked the scenario. Second, he talks about the "Gosprom" building and its special rules. If Mark hates scenarios of dubious historical provenance, I hate scenarios with buildings that have their own SSR's even more. Tyrant's Lair was so loaded with them it made me vomit in my mouth. They weren't so problematic, however, because between the rubble clearance, U-bahns, S-bahns etc., you couldn't make out how to get between them.
Only 8 reports? Crucible of Steel came out just a year earlier and has HUNDREDS of reported playings. Now, maybe it isn't fair to compare the two, but the differences here are enough that I'm not willing to pay $125 (assuming I get it for the asking price and it doesn't get bid up) for it. I'll just wait for one of my last-place performances at some tournament and pick it up because it's the last thing on the prize table.
When purchasing, do your homework. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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